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World Jewish Demography: The Data and the Challenges
February 19, 2002

Deputy Prime Minister Natan Scharansky

The Zionists from the outset claimed that Israel was a safe haven for the Jewish people. To our regret, we are now going through a difficult time in which Jews are being murdered daily. I am certain that we will find the correct and appropriate solution for this. Today we have both an army and solutions that we did not have in the past, during the pogroms in Russia and the trial of Dreyfus in France.

Even today in these difficult times and despite all the serious problems we face, it is still the only place that we, our children and grandchildren can thrive as Jews. We have learnt to cope with the physical dangers, but to this danger there is now an additional one—the danger that we might diminish in numbers through assimilation. Israel is the backbone to the physical and spiritual survival of the Jewish people. Only in this framework we have to examine and see and act on these matters. It is our obligation to see the Jewish people as one whole. For example, our educational system should also be the educational system of all Jews. We have to create a situation whereby young Jews of all factions from Hashomer Hatzair to the Yeshivot of the ultra-Orthodox will come to study in Israel and in this fashion in the course of time to their absorption in Israeli society.

In every field, economically, educationally, culturally, we have to think in terms of macro, of the people in its entirety. Of course, to undertake this we require information and knowledge. Therefore it is so very important that the demographic element which the Jewish Agency has begun to examine and the factors that are becoming available and studied will eventually become available to all. I am referring to the sociodemographic study being carried out and conducted by Prof. Sergio DellaPergola and his colleagues.

Prof. Sergio DellaPergola

World Jewish Demography: The Data and the Challenges
Emerging Jewish Population Trends at the Beginning of the 21st Century

At the beginning of 2003, World Jewry was estimated at about 13 million, against 11 million in 1945 after the Shoah. Since 1970, world Jewish population stands at zero population growth. These estimates reflect a concept of core Jewish population inclusive of people who in censuses or surveys say they are Jewish, or do not express a definite identificational preference but are of Jewish parentage and do not have another religious identification. It should be noted that this is not a halakhic definitional criterion, though it broadly overlaps with it. An estimate of the total number of people eligible for the Law of Return, including non-Jewish members of outmarried households, and non-Jews of Jewish ancestry would be significantly higher.

World Jewish population estimates reflect a downward revision in the population estimates in the two largest Jewish communities out of Israel, the United States and France, following new demographic studies. In both countries, the Jewish population around 2001 was reassessed to be about 5% less than it was in 1990. In the US, the previous total of 5.5 million in 1990 was expected to have grown to 5.7 million due to continuing Jewish immigration from East Europe, Latin America, South Africa, and the Middle East. Instead, two new studies found a lower result: 5.35 million according to the American Jewish Identification Study, and 5.3 million according to the National Jewish Population Study. There are therefore 300,000 to 400,000 fewer core Jews in the U.S. than was expected. In the meanwhile, the enlarged total including all non-Jews of Jewish parentage and non-Jewish relatives increased by one to two millions, and reached 9.2 to 10 millions in 2001.

In France a new study in 2002 found 500,000 core Jews—25,000 fewer than were estimated there in 1990. In several other countries, Jewish population decline has been a rule for several years. This is explained primarily by the steady outflow of Jewish emigrants, as in the case of the Former Soviet Union, South Africa or Argentina. But in addition, the balance of Jewish births and deaths, and of Jewish neophytes and assimilation appears to be clearly on the negative. For example, in the Russian Republic in 2000 about 8,000 recorded Jews died versus only 600 recorded Jewish births. In the United Kingdom, about 3,600 Jews died versus 2,600 Jewish births. In Germany, over the 1990s the influx of new immigrants from the Former Soviet Union caused a three-fold increase in Jewish population size but the number of Jewish births in 2001 was 117 against 990 deaths. In Brazil—a community that has been doing comparatively well—the last two population censuses indicated decline in the number of Jews, and in Canada the 2001 census indicated a stoppage in the previous longstanding trend of Jewish population growth.

Large-scale international migration explains the drastic drop in Jewish population, especially in the Former Soviet Union and in Muslim countries. Between 1970 and 2002, the number of Jews declined by 78% in the European parts of the Former Soviet Union, by 90% in the Asian parts of the FSU, 91% in North Africa, 36% in Southern Africa, and 20% in Latin America.

Low Jewish birth rates and population ageing are enhanced by high and continually increasing frequencies of out-marriage. In Russia during the 1990s, about 70% of Jewish women and 80% of Jewish men married non-Jewish partners. In the US and in several medium-size European Jewish communities the frequency probably was above 50%. In France and the UK it was above 40%. The percentage of children of out-marriages that were raised as Jewish during the early 1990s was about 20% in both the US and the Russian Republic. The compound effect of low birth rates, non-identification of many children of out-marriages, ageing, and possibly also disenchantment and disaffiliation among further sections of the younger adult Jewish population clearly stand behind the observed decline of Jewish populations.

Israel offers the real exception to these recessive demographic trends. Steady immigration is reinforced by significant Jewish natural increase. In 2001, 91,200 Jews were born and 32,700 died in Israel, causing a net increase of 58,500. Community is an important intervening factor in fertility trends resulting in larger families in Israel than among Jews who live in or migrated to other countries. The phenomenon of assimilation and the consequent non-affiliation of Jewish children is not statistically significant in Israel. As a consequence, Jewish population increase in Israel has more or less compensated for Jewish population decline in the Diaspora, and Israel Jewish population constitutes about 40% of the world's total.

Consequences of Jewish Population Trends

The two major Jewish population centers in the United States and Israel now jointly comprise some 80% of world Jewry. After ten years of rapid growth, Israel's Jewish population passed the critical 5 million mark in 2001 and in 2003, at 5.1 million, it continued to approach the size of US Jewry (as noted, about 5.3 million). World Jewry's available resources and the creative ability of contemporary Jewish communities globally are deeply affected by these demographic trends.

The location of Jews on the world map increasingly corresponds to the ranking of countries by the Index of Human Development—an international measure of life quality. 90% of world Jewry now live in the top 20% of countries, in North America, Western Europe, and Israel. Israel was doing well until 2000, being ranked 22nd among 190 nations, but two years of security tensions and economic recession were rather damaging. Sharp ups and downs in the volume and direction of Jewish international migration were determined by the major geopolitical changes of the 1990s. The volume of aliyah clearly reflects value-oriented motivations, but its frequency is primarily related to the standards of living and political situations of the countries of origin of migrants. As further proof, the frequency of emigration from Israel closely matches the frequency of aliyah from countries of a socioeconomic level similar to Israel's.

Jews are increasingly urban, well educated, and economically specialized. Much of the blue-collar Jewish labor in Israel has been replaced by Arab or foreign labor. The profile of Israel's Jewish labor force has thus become more similar to the socioeconomic characteristics of Jews in the Diaspora, but it also has become more dependent on the availability of non-Jewish workers. At the macroeconomic level, Israel's economy has been negatively affected by the situation of international markets, confirming the strong relationship that exists between globalization and changes in Jewish society.

Recent trends in Jewish identification are both a consequence of broader social and cultural change, and a cause for a wide array of processes within the Jewish community. Jewish identification tends to become more diverse and pluralistic and less focused on a common set of basic values. Identification has tended to shift from more religious to more secular, from ethnic to cultural, from community oriented to more individualistic or universalistic. The concern with unity and solidarity within the Jewish collective is not a lesser concern than the challenge of identity and continuity.

Jewish fertility in the Diaspora is lower than among the total population in many countries. Low fertility is the main determinant of population ageing, which in turn creates a surplus of Jewish deaths over births. In longer term prospective, according to Jewish population projections, different levels of fertility and assimilation can make a difference of nearly one million more or one million less Jews globally by 2020, and over 2.5 million more or 2.5 million less by 2050.

Demography is also deeply intertwined with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Jewish fertility is not low in Israel, but fertility among Muslims in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, is significantly higher. Both Jews and non-Jews in Israel and in the Territories have more children than would be expected according to their socioeconomic status, possibly also as a value-oriented defence mechanism in a situation of prolonged conflict. Differential demographic growth of Jews and Palestinians will determine the amount of each group's representation in the make-up of the total population in Israel and the Territories, and in the end who holds the majority and what majority out of the total population.

Significant Issues for Policy Planning

Future Jewish policy planning needs to consider that the current and expected population trends will crucially affect the future of the Jews as a People and as individuals wherever they are. The global geopolitical system should be monitored to shed more insights into possible future Jewish migrations. Understanding why aliyah is higher or lower than expected in specific countries could yield knowledge essential to policy planning. A better set of indicators regarding the quality of Jewish material and cultural environment in different countries is needed. Trends in Israel's economy and labor force, welfare and equal access to resources need to be monitored as economic autonomy and control of crucial productive sectors are fundamentally related to national sovereignty and societal stability.

Changing Jewish family patterns are a major topic for assessment and new policy approaches. With the input of sociologists and social psychologists we need to survey attitudes and behaviors of unmarried Jewish adults into their early 30s. Facing high frequencies of intermarriage in the Diaspora, the role of formal and informal Jewish education in shaping Jewish identification needs to be carefully evaluated. We need to better assess the prospects for sustaining Jewish birth rates in Israel and in the Diaspora. Policy instruments can perhaps affect the statistical equivalent of one-half of a child, which multiplied by millions of households over tens of years would equal to several millions of people. The possible role of social services, and financial and value-oriented incentives should be better understood.

One important consequence of the recent family patterns and international migration is the creation of a growing pool of non-Jewish children, grandchildren and other household mates of Jews. A major policy issue relates to how to bring children of outmarried couples into the mainstream of Jewish society in Israel, and what role relevant institutions such as Israel's Chief Rabbinate should play concerning the Jewish status of hundreds of thousands of non-Jewish immigrants mostly from the former Soviet Union, but also from Ethiopia and other countries. If it is true that minorities tends to adapt to the majority of society, while in the Diaspora it is not easy to stop Jewish identificational losses, in Israel it would probably be possible to perform a larger scale giyur (conversion) of those who seriously wish to join Judaism.

Jewish communities worldwide need to monitor the effectiveness of their various Jewish educational programs—full time and part time—in shaping and developing an accomplished Jewish identity among the younger generation, including those sections that would like to have a Jewish education but do not find in today's Jewish school system programs to their liking. Finally, differential growth rates and population composition need to be taken into account when envisaging possible political solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Brave policy decisions need to be considered to preserve a viable Jewish majority in the State of Israel.

Sallai Meridor

I will open with two comments: The State of Israel and the Jewish people have now powers and potentialities that previously were unavailable. Second, even when conditions are difficult, and today conditions are indeed difficult, it is clear that there is much to be done and much of it is in our hands. In my view, we can exert influence in three areas:

1. The Jewish family: Concerning the Jewish family we have learned that the size of the Jewish family influences the number of Jews in the world. In Israel we must assist those families that wish to have children so as to enable them to do so. In particular I am referring mainly to those families who have two to three children and who would wish that they could have three or four children. Every child is entitled to education, enrichment and support regardless of the family in which he is growing up. However, from the national point of view it is particularly important that the support and help should be granted to most of the Jewish families in Israel. To my regret, this is not the current situation in Israel an here we need drastic changes to be made.

2. Concerning Jewish and Zionist education in Israel and the Diaspora: In the 21st century the State of Israel has to become the senior partner of world Jewry that bears the responsibility for the education of young Jews in the world together with the Jewish communities. Currently the Jewish people invest annually in Israel approximately a milliard dollars. Israel is obliged to invest an equivalent sum to ensure the future of the Jewish people in addition to other sums for security purposes. This is proposed to be the Jewish partnership in the 21st century.

3. Immigration (Aliya): As Israel grows and strengthens itself it is self-understood that so will world Jewry strengthen itself; therefore the two previous points are related to immigration (aliya). I will add to Prof. DellaPergola’s remarks that immigration is vital for us so as to ensure that Israel will remain both a democratic and Jewish state. The figures that we have heard we know from our history. In 1939 there were 17.5 million or more Jews in the world. The figure 12 million we know from the early 1950s. What the figure will be in another fifty years depends on what we will do now.

Mr. Stephan Hoffman

The number of mixed marriages is a very serious problem for the American Jewish community. In our tradition there are various approaches toward the potential convert who approaches us. On the one hand, there is the view of Ezra not to accept non-Jewish women. On the other hand, there is the tradition of Naomi, who warmly accepted Ruth into the fold of the Jewish people. We are today awaiting the results of a sociodemographic survey of the Jewish community in the United States. Analyzing the results should give us some important indications concerning the life styles of the community. This topic also influences us in our speech patterns. In the past we frequently spoke of the “goy” when referring to non-Jews. Today, it would be unthinkable to do so, certainly not in public settings of the Jewish community, since the audience might include many non-Jews. So, too, in the audience there may also be those Jews who are thinking what will be with their children and grandchildren. It is interesting to note that despite the distance and barriers between Israel and the United States, the question “who is a Jew” is common to us both. However, it also divides us the moment that it becomes a political issue in Israel. The conversion of immigrants from the former Soviet Union is a problem that Israel must face and grapple with, since the halakhic approach as it is currently dealt with results in the fact that it prevents these people from identifying as Jews in the State of Israel. We have no simple solutions to this problem, but it demands our attention. In the United States we warmly welcome all those who arrive at a communal festivity and we make them feel welcome; this is a change in attitude from what had been accepted in previous generations. As defined in halakha, we have between five and six million Jews. At times when there is a wave of antisemitism we have a feeling that even as much as ten million people identify as Jews. It appears to me that if we do not accept the Jewishness of the immigrants from the former Soviet Union, that this would then have an adverse effect on the democratic nature of the State of Israel. It is our wish that these Jews should also identify with the Jewish people as a whole and obviously this will not be possible if they are not accepted as Jews here in Israel. Furthermore, we are also influenced by our own local problems in the United States and also what prevails here in Israel.

In addition to our absorbing those who wish to convert and become Jews, we should also encourage visits to Israel, educational programs and more. Israel can aid and support us by providing teachers and educators, and it is the obligation of one and all to provide sufficient means so that Jewish children and adolescents should attend Jewish schools, clubs, and summer camps, synagogues and the like. Only after having received such background experiences can Jews then evaluate the idea of immigration that Mr. Meridor spoke about. It is good that the Jewish Agency has begun at its own initiative a program to study the demographic problem.

In closing, I wish to point out that I personally agree with the pattern of Naomi’s acceptance of Ruth the Moabite, from whom descended King David, and thus I believe this is the correct approach.

His Excellency President Moshe Katsav

Shortly after the Six Day War, I went to study at the Hebrew University. The argument between the Right and Left concerning the demographic problem had already begun. It was prophesied that within fifteen years, the wheel would turn and that the Jews would be in the minority. Since then, thirty-five years have passed and this prophecy has not been fulfilled and we need not expect changes, revolutions, and calamities, and therefore on the basis of the past hundred years, the Jewish people have vitality and will survive. There is no other people who have faced tragedies, calamity, and suffering as has the Jewish people, in particular in the recent past, and despite all the predictions looks forward optimistically.

The aliya from the former Soviet Union increased the Jewish population in Israel by about 20 percent, and to our good fortune this enables us to present forecasts which, while they, too, are problematic, they are still much better than those that we would have had to present had this immigration not come to Israel. However, we still must face the fact that the demographic problem that we will face will not be less problematic than the security problem that awaits us.

In particular, the problems facing the younger generation are much more difficult since they did not undergo the experiences that their parents had faced earlier, such as the Holocaust and the establishment of the State of Israel. It is also sad that so many Diaspora Jews have not visited Israel, though it is highly probable that many of them had in fact visited Europe, which is so close, geographically speaking, to Israel.

It is also distressing that in many Jewish communities there is no Jewish education worthy of the name. We must certain that the billion dollars of which Mr. Meridor spoke, should be invested in education so that we can minimize the high percentage of assimilation that exists in the Jewish communities the world over. As to the question “who is a Jew?” there is a simple definition: “A Jew is one who can assure himself that his grandson will also be a Jew.”

The President is certain that if in the State of Israel there were another million Jews, the questions raised as to the survival of the State and the question of security would appear much differently. And so, too, the peace process would have a different pace and different forms of being fulfilled. And from these points the conclusion why the need for a greater aliya to Israel. Even though that Jewish life in the Diaspora is legitimate, they are always threatened by assimilation. We should also ask ourselves why the existence of the State of Israel did not assure a more successful level of education in the Diaspora. And why did we not succeed in strengthening the ties of Diaspora Jewry to the State? We know that currently in many Jewish communities in the Diaspora that are faced by a serious dilemma—on the one hand the desire and need to identify with the State of Israel, and on the other hand, there are serious views and voices of criticism.

The problems of assimilation and the demographic forecasts obliges the State of Israel to take a stand. I am hopeful that the Deputy Minister, Mr. Natan Scharansky who is present with us this evening, will bring the matter up for discussion. In particular since the last time that this mater was discussed was in 1985 and since then, many changes have taken place and the discussion over it should not be postponed any longer.

The President also congratulated the Jewish Agency, which took the initiative concerning this matter over which the responsibility is held jointly by the State of Israel and its government, the leaders of world Jewry, and all the factions and sections of the Jewish people.

It is unthinkable that Orthodox Jewry should close the door hermetically and state that there is no problem, since among them there is no mixed marriage and no assimilation. They, too, are obliged to prepare a program and volunteer their share in the efforts to minimize the problem of assimilation.

The President thanked Prof. DellaPergola for his preparation of the lecture and his excellent and detailed clarification presented to us.

Note: After the opening lecture and the respondents, questions were asked and a discussion was opened, which will be published in its entirety in a volume that will contain all the meetings of the President’s Study Circle on Diaspora Jewry presented in the year 2003

A full version of this conference can be found in the book of the Forum or in the website of Prisedent House: www.president.gov.il